建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250529

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes Summary | Variety | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6987 | 6944 | 6987 | 6935 | -38 | -0.54% | 99182 | 1788 | | Plastic 2605 | 6972 | 6948 | 6981 | 6938 | -47 | -0.67% | 457 | 30 | | Plastic 2509 | 7005 | 6972 | 7013 | 6961 | -59 | -0.84% | 532123 | 4902 | | PP2601 | 6851 | 6838 | 6860 | 6823 | -13 | -0.19% | 76075 | 3830 | | PP2605 | 6846 | 6840 | 6874 | 6840 | -20 | -0.29% | 316 | 3 | | PP2509 | 6900 | 6893 | 6910 | 6871 | 0 | 0.00% | 520503 | -4691 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. L2509 closed at 6972 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-0.84%), with 34 lots traded and positions increasing by 4902 to 532123 lots. PP's main 09 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with positions decreasing by 4691 to 520,500 lots [6]. - On the supply side, the maintenance loss decreased month-on-month. As previously shut - down plants restarted, supply pressure resumed, and there were expectations of new capacity coming online in June [6]. - Downstream factories' enthusiasm for stocking was average. The operating levels of some industries were basically flat, and new orders were scarce. With supply pressure and a lack of new orders during the off - season, futures opened lower and fluctuated downwards, dampening trading sentiment. Traders had difficulty selling and offered discounts. Downstream buyers were cautious and mainly made small - volume purchases. Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [6]. 5. Industry News - On May 28, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (-3.05%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 800,000 tons [7]. - The domestic PP market was weakly sorted, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures' weak fluctuations provided little guidance to the spot market. Some holders loosened their quotes to focus on sales. Downstream new orders were insufficient, and buyers were cautious and bought at low prices. The actual trading atmosphere was poor, and the trading volume was limited. The mainstream price of North China's drawstring PP was 6960 - 7180 yuan/ton, East China's was 6980 - 7180 yuan/ton, and South China's was 7060 - 7300 yuan/ton [7]. - PE market prices continued to fall. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. In East China, linear, high - pressure, and low - pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some low - pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 80 yuan/ton, and linear and high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE price in North China was 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. 6. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][17][19]