建信期货铁矿石日评-20250529
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-29 01:54
- Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Data on May 28 2.1 Futures Contract Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 2980 | 2981 | 2982 | 2950 | 2964 | -0.77% | 1,333,951 | 2,441,388 | 41,409 | 0.59 | | HC2510 | 3111 | 3110 | 3116 | 3084 | 3100 | -0.55% | 452,531 | 1,537,114 | 23,289 | 0.39 | | SS2507 | 12855 | 12855 | 12860 | 12665 | 12680 | -1.32% | 175,163 | 102,719 | 10,293 | 0.80 | | I2509 | 698.5 | 699 | 702.5 | 695 | 698.5 | -0.14% | 287,342 | 721,508 | - | 0.05 | [5] 2.2 Black Series Futures Open Interest | Contract | Top 20 Long Open Interest | Top 20 Short Open Interest | Top 20 Long Open Interest Change | Top 20 Short Open Interest Change | Difference | Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 1,455,901 | 1,563,182 | 40,029 | 30,268 | 9,761 | 0.65% | | HC2510 | 1,123,502 | 1,009,973 | 9,570 | 16,784 | -7,214 | -0.68% | | SS2507 | 71,503 | 69,923 | 5,916 | 2,844 | 3,072 | 4.34% | | J2509 | 36,486 | 35,967 | 485 | 735 | -250 | -0.69% | | JM2509 | 269,924 | 315,361 | 4,148 | 9,388 | -5,240 | -1.79% | | I2509 | 442,331 | 469,836 | 1,955 | -2,322 | 4,277 | 0.94% | [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On May 28, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 fluctuated weakly, opened lower, then rebounded, and finally declined, closing at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [7] - In the spot market, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract expanded after yesterday's death - cross [9] 3.2 Outlook - Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline last week, with overall supply tightening marginally. However, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil continued to rise, and as it is about to enter the shipment rush period in June, the long - term supply of iron ore remains relatively loose [10] - Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to decline slightly to 243.6 tons last week. The output of the five major steel products increased slightly, but the apparent demand declined. Overall, the demand for iron ore has shown a peak - topping trend [10] - Inventory: The available days of steel mill inventory decreased by 2 days to 20 days, and the port inventory continued to decline, falling below 140 million tons, reaching a new low since mid - March 2024. The marginal decline in inventory supports the iron ore price to some extent [11] - Overall: With the pig iron output peaking and declining, and the rainy season approaching, the demand for iron ore may gradually weaken in the later period, and the iron ore price faces pressure. Currently, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil have broken through the previous support levels, and coke has also experienced two rounds of price cuts, so the iron ore price may lose support. It is advisable to try selling hedging or investment strategies, and spot traders can also try the accumulated put option strategy to increase profits [11] 4. Industry News - On May 28, at the regular press conference, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning commented on the remarks of the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China and the investment plans of US companies in China, emphasizing that China - US economic and trade relations are mutually beneficial and win - win [12] - On May 27, the Brazilian government announced that the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission decided to extend the steel import quota measure for one year, with the in - quota tax rate remaining at 9% - 16% and a 25% tariff for the part exceeding the quota. Four new products were added to the import quota list, increasing the number of restricted products from 19 to 23, aiming to protect the domestic industry [12] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][15][25]