焦煤焦炭早报（2025-5-29）-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report anticipates that the short - term price of coking coal may weaken. The terminal demand release is limited, affecting the profit compression of some steel mills, which reduces the procurement of coke. After the second round of coke price cuts, some coke enterprises' profit losses intensify, and they have production reduction expectations, slowing down the procurement of raw coal. Currently, they mainly consume in - plant coking coal inventory [2]. - Coke is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term. The continuous decline in coking coal prices further releases the profit margin, and coke enterprises maintain a high operating rate. However, due to two consecutive rounds of price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises narrows. With weak downstream demand, some coke enterprises in the production area have inventory accumulation, and the cost support of coke continues to weaken [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Mines are operating normally with little output fluctuation. Downstream coke and steel enterprises reduce coking coal procurement due to poor expectations, resulting in poor new orders for mines, increased sales pressure, and a pessimistic market sentiment. Mines are actively selling with expected price cuts [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1000, and the basis is 198.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coke enterprises is 1838.4 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from last week [2]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The continuous decline in coking coal prices releases profit space, and coke enterprises maintain a high operating rate. However, due to two consecutive rounds of price cuts, profit narrows, and there is no obvious intention to increase production. With weak downstream demand, some coke enterprises in the production area have inventory accumulation [5]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 41.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coke enterprises is 956.8 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from last week [5]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [5]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [4]. - Bearish: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On May 28 (17:30), the prices of most types of port metallurgical coke decreased, with a decrease of 50 in some cases [8]. - On May 28 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal at ports showed different trends, with some rising and some remaining unchanged [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [19]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [25]. Other Indicators - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [36]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [40].