Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the natural rubber market is currently in a neutral state overall. The supply is increasing, the domestic inventory is rising, and the tire operating rate is falling. However, the foreign spot price is rising, and the market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is falling, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 245 with a spot price of 14050, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The inventory situation is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, remaining neutral [4]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The market is sentiment - driven, suggesting short - term trading [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Likely Positive Factors: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are relatively strong [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Supply is increasing, market inventory is rising, and the external environment is bearish [6]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 27 [8]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has shown little change recently [14]. - The Qingdao area inventory has shown little change recently [17]. 3.5 Import The import volume has seasonally declined [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high for the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.7 Basis The basis became a futures discount on May 27 and has been narrowing [35].
大越期货天胶早报-20250529
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-29 03:01