大越期货豆粕早报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range between 2920 and 2980 for M2509. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term outlook is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [8]. - The soybean market for A2507 is expected to trade in a range between 4040 and 4140. The market is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the harvest in South America, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The market is expected to trade above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - Reduced profits in the domestic pig - farming industry led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills and strong spot prices supported short - term price expectations. Uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would continue to oscillate in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills, and uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2850, with a basis of - 111, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventories are 20.69 million tons, up 70.01% from last week and down 72.8% from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 41, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventories are 560.63 million tons, down 4.46% from last week and up 24.44% from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main players increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [10].