大越期货菜粕早报-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2560 - 2620. It was affected by factors such as low rapeseed meal inventory, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and short - term prices will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound trend. The market is affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, inventory, and policy [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still potential for rising geopolitical conflicts to support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price data: From May 19 - 28, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 - 3029 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian increased from 2420 yuan/ton on May 19 to 2540 yuan/ton on May 28 [13][14]. - Inventory data: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,068 on May 16 to 28,009 on May 28 [9][15]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, and funds flowed out [9].