棉花早报-20250529

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a neutral outlook considering various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory. The recent progress in Sino - US negotiations with mutual tariff cuts has a short - term positive impact on the market, but the overall market is also affected by multiple contradictory factors [4]. - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 had a short - term rebound due to the Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders. However, the upward momentum is weakening, and the market center is starting to move downwards [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review The report does not explicitly mention the content of the previous day's review. 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The USDA May report shows a decrease in 25/26 cotton production, an increase in consumption, and unchanged ending stocks. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. China's cotton imports in April were 60,000 tons, an 82.2% year - on - year decrease; cotton yarn imports were 120,000 tons, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. The rural department's April forecast for the 24/25 season includes a production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending stocks of 8.31 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,572, with a basis of 1,242 (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's April forecast for the 24/25 season shows ending stocks of 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [4]. - Expectation: Due to the previous Sino - US tariff cuts and the 90 - day window for export orders, foreign trade textile enterprises have started to rush for exports. The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 09 rebounded in the short term but faced increasing selling pressure, and the upward momentum weakened. As the positive news fades over time, the market center begins to move downwards [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Positive Factors: The reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs leads to a 90 - day window for foreign trade export orders. The futures price is close to historical lows [5]. - Negative Factors: Overall foreign trade orders are declining, inventory is increasing, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Global Production and Consumption: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous year. Consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a 1% increase. Ending stocks are expected to be 17.065 million tons, a marginal decrease of 0.6% [10]. - China's Cotton Situation: In 2024/25 (April estimate), China's production is 5.62 million tons, imports are 3.25 million tons, consumption is 7.69 million tons, and ending stocks are 8.28 million tons. In 2025/26 (May forecast), production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, imports 1.4 million tons, consumption 7.4 million tons, and ending stocks 8.53 million tons [18]. 3.5. Position Data The report indicates that the main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, suggesting a bearish trend for the main players [4].