大越期货甲醇早报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic methanol market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to show a weak trend this week. The port market may face a turning point in inventory due to concentrated imports in the second half of the month, and the inland market may decline due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high methanol operating rates [5]. - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 oscillating between 2180 - 2230 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2509, the fundamentals are neutral. The port market may be suppressed by inventory accumulation, and the inland market may decline due to supply - demand contradictions. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 393,800 tons, with a slight increase of 3,700 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short, with short positions decreasing. The expected price range for this week is 2180 - 2230 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran, low port inventory, the operation of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen on May 16, a planned 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong to be put into production this month, and methanol procurement by CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operating rates, certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production with active sales, and inventory accumulation in some production areas due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: The spot price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 699 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 254 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 2264 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 328 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price in Jiangsu is 2242 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong is 2398 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Hebei is 2040 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price in Fujian is 2295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The futures closing price is 2206 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The registered warrants are 1600, with an increase of 1600. The effective forecast is 0, unchanged [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis is 36 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4 yuan/ton. The import spread is 58 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 156 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Hebei is 202 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia is 342 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 74 US dollars/ton, unchanged [8]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate in East China is 80.65%, unchanged. The operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, with a decrease of 2.39%. The operating rate in Southwest China is 44.06%, with a decrease of 1.22%. The operating rate in Northwest China is 81.54%, with a decrease of 3.55%. The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% [8]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory in East China ports is 231,100 tons, with an increase of 13,100 tons. The inventory in South China ports is 162,700 tons, with a decrease of 9,400 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Enterprises: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced production, including enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses [58]. - Foreign Methanol Enterprises: Some foreign methanol enterprises, especially those in Iran, are in the process of resuming production, while others in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have different operating conditions [59]. - Olefin Enterprises: Some olefin enterprises are operating stably, while others are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or have uncertain resumption times. Some new projects are also planned to be put into production [60].