大越期货沥青期货早报-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - The planned domestic asphalt production in May 2025 is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 31.6994%, a decrease of 3.30 percentage points. Sample enterprise output is 529,000 tons, a decrease of 9.41%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.8%, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt开工率 is 12.332%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 31%, an increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 36.8%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit is 0.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7. The profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased by 48.58%. Crude oil has weakened, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short term [7]. - Inventory - Social inventory is 1.346 million tons, a decrease of 2.53%; factory inventory is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 5.27%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 17,000 tons, an increase of 54.55%. Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing [7]. - Market Outlook - The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3455 - 3507 in the short term. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high price of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand [7][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Analysis - In May 2025, the planned asphalt production increased, but the capacity utilization rate decreased this week. Sample enterprise output decreased, and refineries reduced production to relieve supply pressure, with potential pressure increase next week [7]. - Demand Analysis - The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工率 of various types of asphalt [7]. - Cost Analysis - Crude oil weakened, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken in the short term. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference with delayed coking increased [7]. - Inventory Analysis - Social and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while port diluted asphalt inventory is increasing [7]. - Market Outlook - The market is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, affected by positive factors such as relatively high crude oil prices and negative factors like weak demand [7][9][10]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Market Overview - Presented data on various contracts' prices, inventory,开工率, etc. For example, the prices of different contracts showed different trends, and inventory and开工率 data also changed significantly [14]. - Price and Spread Analysis - Included the analysis of basis,主力合约价差, asphalt - crude oil price spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. These data reflect the relative price relationships in the market [16][19][22][29]. - Profit Analysis - Analyzed asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, showing the profitability of asphalt production [36][39]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume,开工率, and maintenance loss on the supply side. These data reflect the production and supply capacity of asphalt [42][44][47]. - Inventory Analysis - Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, reflecting the inventory status of asphalt [63][68][71]. - Import and Export Analysis - Presented the trends of asphalt export and import, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt [74][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, downstream machinery demand, and asphalt开工率), reflecting the demand situation of asphalt [80][83][86]. - Supply - Demand Balance - Provided a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [106].