芳烃橡胶早报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - PTA: Proximal TA start - up increased, polyester start - up decreased from high levels, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level. PX domestic start - up increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN decreased slightly, the structure remained, isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread increased. In the future, polyester output is expected to decline, and the low processing fee state of bottle chips continues. TA has fully implemented maintenance in the first half of the year and still has production plans, so it has high requirements for further inventory reduction. When the downstream exceeds expectations, the inventory reduction link will gradually shift to PX. Pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the far - month TA processing fee [1] - MEG: Proximal domestic oil - based start - up decreased slightly, coal - based maintenance and restart coexisted, start - up decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrivals, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase. Overall, there are unexpected device situations in the near term. With the supply of oil - based products decreasing more than expected and the short - term resilience of the demand side still existing, the reduction of port inventory is expected to be more significant. Pay attention to the staged positive set opportunity [2] - Polyester Staple Fiber: Proximal Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, start - up decreased to 93.2%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn increased, raw material inventory decreased, and inventory increased month - on - month, with benefits still weakening. Generally, the benefits of staple fiber are low, but the start - up has not decreased significantly. With high self - supply and downstream profit under pressure, the fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly. However, the disk processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level and is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to subsequent production reduction actions [2] - Natural Rubber: The national explicit inventory decreased slightly, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm for tapping rubber at this price is expected to be okay. The strategy is to wait and see [2] - Styrene and Derivatives: The prices of related products such as styrene, EPS, and PS changed, and the domestic profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated. The price of pure benzene and its spread with naphtha also changed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Market Data: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated, PTA spot prices changed between 4860 - 4910, PTA processing fees ranged from 85.54 - 97.22, and PTA load remained at 77.1. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+185) [1] - Device Situation: A 100 - million - ton PTA device restarted [1] MEG - Market Data: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of MEG in Northeast Asia remained at 780, the port inventory price fluctuated between 521 - 530, and the profit of MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) changed between - 372 - 540. The negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4524 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+150) [2] - Device Situation: A 100 - million - ton MEG device in Sanjiang reduced its load [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Market Data: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber was around 6515, and the market basis was around 07 - 30 [2] - Device Situation: Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, and the start - up decreased to 93.2% [2] Natural Rubber - Market Data: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - latex, Thai cup lump rubber, etc., changed. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14540 to 13800 [2] Styrene and Derivatives - Market Data: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, EPS, etc. changed. For example, the price of styrene in China decreased from 7825 to 7650, and the price of pure benzene decreased from 8850 to 8750. The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated [2]