农产品早报-20250529

Report Overview - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the market supply has increased, leading to a decline in spot prices and a repair of the basis. In the long term, the insufficient supply of imported and domestic grains gives corn strong upward potential. Attention should be paid to supply supplements, new - season planting, and warehouse receipt changes [4]. - Starch: In the short term, the increase in raw material costs has led to an expansion of processing losses and slow inventory reduction. In the long term, due to weak consumption and high inventory, price adjustment space is limited, and short - selling of far - month contracts can be considered [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, the Brazilian new - season sugarcane crushing has begun, and the market is trading on the expected increase in production, putting pressure on raw sugar. Domestically, there is support below, and imports are expected to increase after July. In the long term, raw sugar will weaken with the increase in Brazilian supply [7]. - Cotton: Xinjiang has achieved a significant increase in production. The demand side is weak due to a poor international trade environment and limited domestic demand recovery. Attention should be paid to domestic favorable policies, trade war developments, and macro risks [9]. - Eggs: Due to unfavorable weather, weak downstream demand, and price declines of substitutes, egg prices have fallen. However, the decline space is limited, and prices will fluctuate around feed costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of low egg prices on the sentiment of culling laying hens during the rainy season [15]. - Apples: There is a certain expectation of production reduction in the new season, and attention should be paid to the bagging situation. Currently, consumption is good, but seasonal fruits may affect apple sales. Attention should be paid to the actual fruit - setting situation in the western regions [23]. - Pigs: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the market supply rhythm is accelerating. The futures price has also declined, and short - term downward pressure remains. In the long term, opportunities for long - positions after selling should be noted [23]. Data Summaries Corn/Starch | Variety | Location | Price on May 22 | Price on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2180 | - | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2270 | 2270 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2370 | 2380 | 10 | | | Shekou | 2370 | 2410 | 20 | | | Basis | -59 | -55 | -1 | | | Trade Profit | -35 | 5 | 20 | | | Import Profit and Loss | 251 | 276 | 20 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2950 | 2950 | 0 | | | Basis | 139 | 132 | -11 | | | Processing Profit | -111 | -109 | 4 | [3] Sugar | Location | Price on May 22 | Price on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 6210 | 6200 | 0 | | Nanning | 6160 | 6155 | 0 | | Kunming | 5980 | 5960 | 0 | | Liuzhou Basis | 355 | 405 | 46 | | Warehouse Receipts | 32304 | 31581 | -300 | [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn | Variety | Index | Value on May 22 | Value on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton | 3128 | 14455 | 14390 | -15 | | | Imported M - grade US Cotton | 76.7 | 76.8 | 0 | | | Import Profit | 573 | - | - | | | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | 11757 | 11560 | -48 | | Cotton Yarn | Vietnam Yarn | 2.49 | 2.48 | 0 | | | Spot | 20450 | 20370 | -40 | | | Vietnam Yarn Import Profit | 156 | 158 | 2 | | | 32S Spinning Profit | -727 | -739 | -56 | [9] Eggs | Location | Price on May 22 | Price on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 3.00 | 2.80 | -0.20 | | Liaoning | 3.09 | 2.98 | -0.11 | | Shandong | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0 | | Henan | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0 | | Hubei | 3.02 | 2.96 | -0.06 | | Basis | 460 | 518 | 58 | | Substitute - White - feather Broiler | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0 | | Substitute - Yellow - feather Broiler | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0 | | Substitute - Pig | 20.67 | 20.84 | 0.17 | [14] Apples | Location | Price on May 22 | Price on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | 8500.00 | 8500.00 | 0 | | Shaanxi 70 Common | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0 | | National Inventory | 148.24 | - | - | | Shandong Inventory | 86.41 | - | - | | Shaanxi Inventory | 40.14 | - | - | | 1 - month Basis | 1031.00 | 983.00 | -48 | | 5 - month Basis | 864.00 | 833.00 | -31 | | 10 - month Basis | 948.00 | 858.00 | -90 | [22] Pigs | Location | Price on May 22 | Price on May 28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 14.40 | 14.50 | 0.10 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 14.15 | 14.40 | 0.25 | | Shandong Linyi | 14.57 | 14.67 | 0.10 | | Anhui Hefei | 14.45 | 14.77 | 0.32 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 14.75 | 14.92 | 0.17 | | Basis | 820 | 940 | 120 | [23]