油脂油料早报-20250529

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff will be $52 per ton, down from $74 per ton last month [1]. - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season has been lowered by 1% to 18 million tons due to deteriorating soil moisture conditions in key growing areas, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - The estimated production of Australian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season is 6.2 million tons, supported by the long - term weather outlook [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Indonesia Palm Oil: Indonesia reduced the reference price of crude palm oil for a month to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff dropped to $52 per ton from $74 per ton last month [1]. - Canadian Rapeseed: The 2025/26 season production estimate was cut by 1% to 18 million tons. The planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year and 1.9% less than Statistics Canada's estimate. The USDA's latest estimate is 19.5 million tons. As of now, Saskatchewan's sowing is 72% complete, higher than the annual and 10 - year averages. However, soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is at a six - year low, and the weather in western Canada's main rapeseed - growing areas is expected to be warmer and drier during the main growing season [1]. - Australian Rapeseed: The 2025/26 season production estimate is 6.2 million tons. The seasonal weather model shows that precipitation and temperature conditions in the main growing areas will be close to normal from a certain month to November, and sufficient rainfall is expected in the next 10 days [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 22 to May 28, 2025 are provided [2]. Protein Meal and Oil Basis - Basis data for different months (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month) of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in East China from 2020/2021 to 2024/2025 are presented [3].