永安期货有色早报-20250529

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 RMB, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow, and the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting the refined copper price [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction. The positive spread between months can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - The zinc price is oscillating. It is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [2] - Opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 RMB next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - The tin market is expected to maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the long term [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - to - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the spot price increased by 10, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons [1] - Supply: The Kamo copper mine may have reduced production due to an earthquake, and the Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June [1] - Demand: Domestic refined copper consumption shows resilience, with strong cable consumption expected in the second quarter, but consumption in some sectors is weakening [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 140 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons [1] - Supply: Supply has increased slightly, and there was significant aluminum ingot import from January to April [1] - Demand: Demand is not expected to decline significantly from May to June, and there is still a supply - demand gap [1] - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decline steadily from May to July [1] Zinc - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 100 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons [2] - Supply: Domestic and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly in May [2] - Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, while overseas demand is slightly recovering [2] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory is accumulating slowly, and the LME inventory is declining slightly [2] Nickel - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 200 RMB/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 864 tons [3] - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3] - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the spot premium remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the price of 201 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 25 RMB/ton, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 50 RMB/ton [3] - Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3] - Demand: Demand is mainly for essential needs [3] - Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have been cleared [3] Lead - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons [4][6][11] - Supply: Scrap lead supply is weak, and some secondary smelters are reducing production [6] - Demand: Battery export orders have decreased slightly, and overall demand is weak [6] Tin - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 7,484.98, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [8] - Supply: Myanmar's Wa State's short - term resumption of production requires negotiation, and some domestic smelters in Jiangxi have reduced production [8] - Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [8] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 100, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 340 [9] - Supply: Some large northern factories have resumed production, and overall production has increased slightly [9] - Demand: Demand from the organic silicon and polysilicon industries is declining, and enterprises are purchasing mainly for essential needs [9] - Inventory: Social inventory is starting to decline, but the overall inventory level is still high [9] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From May 22 - 28, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 500 RMB/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 300 [9] - Supply: Some production lines have resumed work, and some small recycling plants have increased production cuts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and enterprises are maintaining only safety stocks [9] - Inventory: The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week [9]