Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - Price Data: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-29 05:06