瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250529

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, the HC2510 contract initially declined and then rebounded. The overall terminal demand for hot - rolled coils has strong resilience, with the apparent demand turning from a decline to an increase, which supports the low - level rebound of hot - rolled coils. However, the black sector is weak, so the rebound of hot - rolled coils faces significant pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. The recommended operation is intraday short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Data Summary Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,552,234 lots, up 15,120 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 in HC contracts: 136,102 lots, up 22,508 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: - 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 148,677 tons, down 4,454 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 132 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 737 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 13,987.83 million tons, down 178.26 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 73.30 million tons, up 8.05 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 660.90 million tons, down 2.62 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 69.3 million tons, down 5.21 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.67%, down 0.46% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 91.3%, down 0.44% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 319.55 million tons, up 13.87 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 81.63%, up 3.54% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 75.02 million tons, down 1.90 million tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 257.79 million tons, down 5.48 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 8,602 million tons, down 682 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 994 million tons, down 2 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 261.88 million vehicles, down 38.71 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 258.96 million vehicles, down 32.59 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 3,083.30 million units, down 287.89 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 817.90 million units, down 120.45 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 965.10 million units, down 135.12 million units [2]. Industry News - Mysteel on May 29 reported that the actual hot - rolled coil output was 319.55 million tons, an increase of 13.87 million tons; factory inventory and social inventory continued to decline, with total inventory down 7.38 million tons and apparent demand up 13.87 million tons [2]. - The US Federal Court on May 28 blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2 and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US exceeded his authority [2].