瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250529

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend, making it difficult to strongly drive the market. The industrial silicon futures have witnessed panic trading, and the trading volume remains high. For medium - and long - term operations, a high - short strategy is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,215 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 226,069 lots, down 1,138 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11,659 lots, up 5,965 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 64,286 lots, down 340 lots; the spread between the July - August contracts is - 25, up 10 [3] 现货 Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,235 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [3] 产业 Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3] 下游 Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 39,000 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.29 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.01 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.31%, down 0.26 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [3] 行业 News - On May 14, at the request of US companies Ferroglobe USA, Inc. and Mississippi Silicon LLC on April 24, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced anti - dumping investigations on imported silicon metal from Angola, Australia, Laos, and Norway, and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand [3] 观点总结 - As the wet season approaches in Yunnan and Sichuan, the electricity cost advantage emerges, but the southwest region has no intention to resume work. The spot price of the organic silicon market continues to decline, and enterprises' procurement and stocking enthusiasm is insufficient. The mainstream polysilicon enterprises maintain stable production, but the industry is operating at a reduced load. In the aluminum alloy field, the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries have certain demand support, but the procurement scale has not increased significantly. The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries shows a downward trend [3]