瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Thursday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1.75 - 2.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 1.40bp to 1.70% and 1.94% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly falling by 0.06%, 0.15%, 0.26%, and 0.65% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.64%. Domestically, the economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly declining, fixed - asset investment shrinking, industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to recover, but low prices still suppressed profits. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real - estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade - friction - induced risk - aversion sentiment. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected increase in tariff friction led to an unexpected rebound in exports, and there were continuous expectations of intensified fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI and consumer confidence index in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit claims declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and the Fed's May meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards monetary policy, with the rate - cut timing possibly postponed to July. In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations of a long - term bull market for bonds, but in the short term, due to the阶段性 results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of rate - cut and reserve - requirement - ratio - cut benefits, market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly cooled, and the bond market has weakened. Given the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract: The closing price was 108.475, down 0.26%; the trading volume was 72,334, an increase of 22,505 [2]. - TF main contract: The closing price was 105.870, down 0.15%; the trading volume was 57,177, an increase of 12,439 [2]. - TS main contract: The closing price was 102.346, down 0.06%; the trading volume was 32,722, an increase of 5,637 [2]. - TL main contract: The closing price was 118.690, down 0.65%; the trading volume was 94,531, an increase of 33,864 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.68, down 0.10; T06 - TL06 spread was - 9.76, up 0.39 [2]. - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, down 0.04; TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.69, up 0.07 [2]. - TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.30, unchanged; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.07, up 0.18 [2]. - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.17, down 0.02; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.39, up 0.11 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract: The open interest was 166,334, down 24,473; the long positions of the top 20 were 163,702, down 16,357; the short positions of the top 20 were 166,204, down 19,797; the net short positions of the top 20 were 2,502, down 3,440 [2]. - TF main contract: The open interest was 138,906, down 13,370; the long positions of the top 20 were 130,021, down 4,663; the short positions of the top 20 were 143,527, down 6,523; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,506, down 1,860 [2]. - TS main contract: The open interest was 110,993, down 10,251; the long positions of the top 20 were 88,534, up 2,364; the short positions of the top 20 were 101,879, down 4,215; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,345, down 6,579 [2]. - TL main contract: The open interest was 95,648, down 18,295; the long positions of the top 20 were 89,398, down 10,631; the short positions of the top 20 were 93,471, down 7,129; the net short positions of the top 20 were 4,073, up 3,502 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 250007.IB (6y): The price was 100.862, down 0.2098; 220017.IB (6y): The price was 99.0955, down 0.1698 [2]. - 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.7533, down 0.1486; 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.8844, down 0.1221 [2]. - 250006.IB (1.7y): The price was 100.1695, down 0.0399; 240010.IB (1.9y): The price was 100.6711, down 0.0396 [2]. - 210005.IB (18y): The price was 134.4848, down 0.6714; 210014.IB (18y): The price was 130.8879, down 0.4259 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield: 1.4600%, down 0.25bp; 3 - year yield: 1.4980%, up 0.30bp [2]. - 5 - year yield: 1.5400%, up 0.75bp; 7 - year yield: 1.6275%, up 0.65bp [2]. - 10 - year yield: 1.7050%, up 0.75bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate: 1.4187%, up 6.87bp; Shibor overnight: 1.4110%, unchanged [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.6450%, up 14.50bp; Shibor 7 - day: 1.6020%, up 2.40bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.7363%, up 5.63bp; Shibor 14 - day: 1.7440%, up 7.50bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year LPR: 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR: 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 266 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 154.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on June 4, including 3.5 billion yuan of 2 - year, 3 billion yuan of 3 - year, 3 billion yuan of 5 - year, and 3 billion yuan of 10 - year bonds [2]. - Since the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides have maintained communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels. China has repeatedly negotiated with the US regarding its abuse of export - control measures in the semiconductor field and urged the US to correct its wrong practices [2]. - On May 28 (local time), the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was an over - stepping of authority, and the Trump administration filed an appeal [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - On May 30 at 20:30, the US April core PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On May 30 at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3].