瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250529

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US corn planting progress is good, but the excellent rate is lower than expected. The market is worried about the long - term import pressure. Domestically, in the Northeast, feed enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm is average, and market trading is light. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the supply is relatively large, and the downstream demand is weak. The corn price is under pressure [3]. - For corn starch, under the influence of high raw material costs, large industry losses, and downstream demand being affected by substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. The spot price is relatively firm, but the actual digestion ability is limited, and the industry inventory remains high. The starch futures price has rebounded slightly recently, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2332 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 105 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 1171400 lots, down 40541 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 88832 lots, up 3891 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 216419 lots, down 680 lots; the basis of the main contract is 47.8 yuan/ton, down 5.24 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2676 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 227282 lots, down 8079 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5912 lots, down 3864 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 25252 lots, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is 14 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 450.75 cents/bushel, down 7.5 cents; the total open interest is 1637956 contracts, up 48527 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 11552 contracts, down 29658 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2379.8 yuan/ton, up 1.76 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 2055.53 yuan/ton, down 7.55 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 42 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2690 yuan/ton, 2890 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 377.63 million tons, 126 million tons, 50 million tons, 294.92 million tons, and 26.8 million tons respectively, with no change in the sown area [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 130.4 tons, down 13.5 tons; the inventory at northern ports is 486 tons, down 9 tons; the monthly import volume is 18 tons, up 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23720 tons, up 3370 tons [2]. - Production and consumption: The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons; the weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 119.83 tons, up 1.28 tons; the weekly alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.61%, up 1.46%; the weekly starch enterprise operating rate is 54.33%, down 1.55% [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, unchanged; the corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 151 yuan/ton, - 87 yuan/ton, and - 105 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 6 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, and - 15 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.5%, down 0.92%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.07%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 10.78%, down 1% [2]. Industry News - As of May 25, the US corn planting progress in 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn sown area is 87%, higher than the previous week's 78% and the five - year average of 85%. The excellent rate is 68%, lower than the analyst's expected 73% [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].