瑞银：全球外汇策略- 美元的财政拖累

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the FX industry Core Insights - US fiscal concerns are increasingly impacting market sentiment, with the recent budget reconciliation bill raising sustainability worries rather than growth expectations [1] - The divergence between the USD and long-term yields has been notable, with 30-year yields increasing by over 50 basis points since April 2, while the BBDXY index has decreased by approximately 5% [2] - Structural headwinds for the USD are evident, as both safe-haven currencies like JPY and pro-risk currencies like NZD are outperforming their short-term fair values [6] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The relationship between the USD and long-term yields has broken down, indicating broader weakness in the USD beyond just core G10 currencies [2] - The report highlights that much of the USD selling has occurred during the Asian trading hours, with China being a significant net seller of US Treasuries [10][11] M&A Activity - The inbound cross-border US merger pipeline appears positive, with an increase in both inbound and outbound M&A deal flows [12][13] - US foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to remain balanced as a percentage of GDP in H1 2025, which may not support the USD if portfolio outflows from US bonds and equities increase significantly [12] Currency Performance - The report notes that USD weakness has been concentrated, with various currencies showing different performance metrics against the USD [7] - The macro factor attribution analysis indicates that the EURUSD has a net impulse of 0.99, while USDJPY shows a negative impulse of -1.95, reflecting varying influences on currency movements [19][21] Positioning and Flows - The positioning data from CFTC Commitments of Traders shows leveraged funds and asset managers' positions in various currency pairs, indicating market sentiment and potential future movements [44][45] - The report discusses equity ETF flows, noting that foreign buying of US equities was slower but not negative in March, suggesting a complex interplay of inflows and outflows [15][16]