建信期货集运指数日报-20250530

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Tariff easing and a continuous small increase in mid - June quotes have led to the stabilization and recovery of the index. The June quotes are relatively firm. Maersk's mid - June quote increased to $2319, indicating decent demand. Most other airlines' quotes remained stable in the $2500 - $3300 range. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to the time - lag effect of the Sino - US trade friction easing on May 12. The peak - season rush for exports may not be falsified. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and if shipping companies are determined to hold prices, there may be a small increase. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly based on the logic of the US - line rush exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction in the peak season, and are more affected by sentiment. If the June prices are strong, the central price of the far - month peak - season contracts should also rise [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market on the day: Due to tariff easing and rising mid - June quotes, the index stabilized. Maersk's mid - June quote rose to $2319, while most other airlines' quotes were stable. The decline in US - line trade data may be due to a time - lag. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, and far - month contracts are affected by sentiment [8] 2. Industry News - From May 19th to 23rd, the China export container shipping market continued to improve, with most long - haul routes' freight rates rising. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. On May 23rd, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 7.2% to 1586.12 points. In the European route, the eurozone's economic recovery faces challenges. The freight rates of European and Mediterranean routes increased significantly, while those of North American routes also rose. In the near - ocean routes, the freight rates to Japan remained stable, the rate to Southeast Asia increased, and the rate to South Korea decreased. Due to tariff policy uncertainty and inventory shortages in US retailers, shipping companies plan to increase freight rates. Future four weeks will see 75,000 TEU of overtime ships on the US - line. The EU's new draft policy may impact the European small - package market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that from May 19th to May 26th, the European route's index decreased by 1.4%, while the US - West route's index increased by 18.9% [12] 3.2 Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Not elaborated in text, but figures of the main and secondary - main contracts' trends are provided [16] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Figures of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are provided [17][21]