大越期货玻璃早报-20250530

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1009 yuan/ton to 985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 1080 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The main basis increased from 71 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.54% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The profitability of the coal production line has recovered, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [16]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [20][22]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. Other demand - related indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, completion area, and downstream processing plant operations and orders are also mentioned but lack specific data updates in this report [26]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.662 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continued to decline to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious and mainly digest the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will fluctuate at a low level [5].