建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250530

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the contradiction of supply - demand imbalance still existing and there being downward pressure in the medium term. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance loss volume declines and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in June, while the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower, fluctuated and then rose, with L2509 closing at 7025 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (0.52%), with a trading volume of 41.5 lots and an increase in open interest by 11161 to 543284 lots. PP's main contract 09 closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.44%), with an increase in open interest by 635 lots to 521,100 lots. The supply pressure has recovered as the maintenance loss volume decreased and new capacity is expected to be launched in June. The downstream factories' enthusiasm for stockpiling is average, with the operating levels of some industries remaining flat and few new orders. The spot trading atmosphere is general, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly [6]. - Futures market quotations: For plastics, L2601 opened at 6987 yuan/ton, closed at 6944 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan (-0.54%); L2605 opened at 6972 yuan/ton, closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan (-0.67%); L2509 opened at 7005 yuan/ton, closed at 6972 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan (-0.84%). For PP, PP2601 opened at 6851 yuan/ton, closed at 6838 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (-0.19%); PP2605 opened at 6846 yuan/ton, closed at 6840 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-0.29%); PP2509 opened at 6900 yuan/ton, closed at 6893 yuan/ton, unchanged (0.00%) [5]. 2. Industry News - On May 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons (5.66%) compared with the previous working day, while the inventory was 765,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly. PP futures rose supported by macro news and crude oil cost, but it had limited impact on the spot market trading atmosphere. Most trade offers were adjusted, and some resources at the end of the month continued to be pre - sold at low prices. The downstream confidence was insufficient and they mainly waited and watched after phased restocking. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6970 - 7170 yuan/ton, those of East China were 6980 - 7180 yuan/ton, and those of South China were 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton [7]. - The PE market prices showed a mixed trend. In North China, some linear prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure prices decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, linear and high - pressure prices increased or decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices increased or decreased slightly by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, linear, high - pressure and low - pressure prices increased or decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7030 - 7350 yuan/ton, those in East China were 7200 - 7550 yuan/ton, and those in South China were 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory and its year - on - year increase or decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the research and development department of CCB Futures [9][13][17]