贵金属月报：贵金属仍受宏观左右-20250530

Report Information - Report Type: Precious Metals Monthly Report - Date: May 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its extremely high price - to - earnings ratio mean that the price volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [5][39] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 January - May Precious Metals Trend Review - After the bearish impact of the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of rise and returned to the medium - term upward channel since March 2024 at the end of January 2025. On April 3, 2025, London gold set a new record of $3,168 per ounce. Subsequently, due to various factors such as trade policies and market sentiment, the gold price fluctuated greatly, reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce and then adjusting to the range of $3,200 - $3,360 per ounce [7] - As of 2025, London gold and silver have risen by 25.8% and 15.1% respectively, and Shanghai gold and silver futures indices have risen by 24.9% and 10.1% respectively. Gold has a strong negative correlation with the US dollar exchange rate and crude oil, a weakened positive correlation with silver, and its correlation with the real yield of US Treasury bonds has changed from negative to positive [9] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 US Employment and Inflation Double Risks - Trump's radical domestic and foreign reforms have disrupted the normal economic and social order in the US. In the first quarter of 2025, the US real GDP contracted by 0.27% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, while the GDP deflator increased by 3.74%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates that the US real GDP will grow by 2.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025 [11][13] - In May 2025, the 1 - year inflation expectation rose to 7.3%, the 5 - year inflation expectation rose to 4.6%, and consumer confidence fell to 50.8%. In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs. The inflation growth rate has been at a relatively low level recently, and the inflation pressure in the second half of 2025 is not expected to rise significantly [13][14][17] 2.2 Cooling of Sino - US Tense Trade Situation - On May 8, the US and the UK reached an economic prosperity agreement. The tariff measures include mutual tariff cuts on certain products. The US - China trade situation has cooled down, with both sides reducing tariff rates. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions were illegal, and the Trump administration has decided to appeal [21][23][24] - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate and balance - sheet reduction unchanged in May 2025. The Fed's interest - rate policy this year depends on the overall economic situation, employment market, and inflation. The possibility of a rate cut is much higher than that of a rate hike [25] 2.4 Weak Operation of the US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield has fluctuated, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range with a core fluctuation range of 4 - 5%. The US dollar index is expected to first decline and then rise within the range of 95 - 107. The RMB exchange rate is generally bullish, with the RMB - US dollar exchange rate expected to first rise and then fall, with a core fluctuation range of 7.1 - 7.5 [28][31] 2.4 Gold Supply - Demand and Market Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 12.2% compared with the low point in May 2024, while the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 5% compared with the high point in October 2024. As of the week of May 20, 2025, the net long ratio of gold funds decreased to 20.9%, and that of silver funds rose to 28.6% [32][35] 3. Precious Metals Price Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade, currency system will continue to push up the gold price's volatility center. In the medium - term, the risks of US economic stagflation and global economic recession have increased, boosting the demand for gold as a hedge against inflation. In the short - term, the gold price has maintained a medium - term upward trend despite fluctuations [36]