Group 1: Market Performance - On May 29, the main contract 2509 of coke futures hit a new low since January 2017 for the September contract and then narrowed its decline; the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures continued to decline oscillating, hitting a new low since September 2016 for the September contract. The closing price of J2509 was 1332 yuan/ton, down 1.62%, with a trading volume of 28,870 lots and an open interest of 56,432 lots, a decrease of 1,050 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.35 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2509 was 759 yuan/ton, down 3.98%, with a trading volume of 709,680 lots and an open interest of 540,328 lots, an increase of 13,462 lots, and a capital outflow of 0.04 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Positions in the Black Series Futures - As of May 29, in the black series futures, RB2510 had a net long position of 60,132 lots with a deviation of 4.12%; HC2510 had a net long position of 22,300 lots with a deviation of 2.07%; SS2507 had a net long position of 2,345 lots with a deviation of 3.36%; J2509 had a net long position of 930 lots with a deviation of 2.60%; JM2509 had a net short position of 7,080 lots with a deviation of 2.35%; I2509 had a net short position of 5,279 lots with a deviation of 1.15% [6]. Group 3: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On May 29, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and the price in Tangshan was 1270 yuan/ton, also down 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged in most regions. The daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to diverge downward. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to expand slightly, and that of the coking coal 2509 contract expanded more significantly [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - For coke, the output of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year in the past 5 weeks, while the output of steel mills has declined slightly since late April. Port inventories have decreased significantly in the past 5 weeks, but the inventory reduction of steel mills and coking plants has been slow, adding downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after two consecutive weeks of profit, mainly due to the failure of the second - round price increase after the first - round increase in mid - April, which created conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut on May 16. - For coking coal, the year - on - year growth of imports from January to April turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants increased significantly, and the clean coal inventory rose to a relatively high level again. The inventory of independent coking plants decreased significantly in the past 5 weeks, and port inventories returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise. - Overall, although the weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and new lows may appear in the next two weeks, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a bottom - out and rebound trend can occur in about two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10]. Group 5: Industry News - From January to April 2025, China issued 1492.7 billion yuan of new local government bonds, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1190.4 billion yuan of special bonds; 2042.7 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, including 248.6 billion yuan of general bonds and 1794.1 billion yuan of special bonds. The total local government bond issuance was 3535.4 billion yuan. As of the end of April 2025, the balance of local government debt was 50693.1 billion yuan [11]. - Jiantou Energy stated that its long - term coking coal price is usually calculated based on the origin price, and the pricing mechanism is in accordance with relevant documents of the NDRC and local governments. The average comprehensive standard coal price in the first quarter was 775.12 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 11.43% [11]. - Since the beginning of this year, the domestic coal price has further declined, and the competitiveness of Xinjiang coal in the inland has been gradually weakened, with the railway transportation volume of Xinjiang coal in the first quarter of 2025 being 22.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% [11]. - The fifth - phase project of Huanghua Port's coal terminal has made new progress, which will add a storage capacity of 540,000 tons and increase the annual coal transportation capacity by 53.1 million tons after completion [12]. - GF Securities released a research report stating that the electricity consumption continued to grow in April, and coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. The coal market has shown signs of stabilization recently, and with the increase in seasonal demand, the slowdown in production growth, and the expected decline in imported coal, coal prices are expected to bottom out and rise, reversing the pessimistic expectations for the industry [12]. - The Brazilian government decided to extend the trade protection measures for the steel industry, extending the 25% tariff policy on steel products for 12 months and maintaining the import quota system. The number of products subject to trade protection measures increased from 19 to 23. From January to April 2025, Brazil's steel imports increased by 27.5% year - on - year to 2.2 million tons [12]. - In April 2025, Russia's coal production was 36.067 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. 68% of the production came from the Siberian Federal District, with a production of 24.403 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [12]. - In April 2025, Japan's coal imports were 12.0263 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1689 million tons (8.86%) and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2647 million tons (2.15%) [12]. - France's EDF announced that it will shut down its last coal - fired power plant in France, the Cordemais power plant, on March 31, 2027, with an installed capacity of 1200 MW [12]. - OPEC+ reaffirmed its production quotas for 2025 and 2026, and eight key member countries will decide whether to increase production again in July this weekend [12]. - The EU is expected to cut carbon emissions by 54% by 2030, slightly lower than its 55% target. The European Commission is preparing to propose a 90% emission reduction target by 2040 [13]. - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%. The committee will carefully evaluate subsequent data, changing prospects, and risk balance when considering further adjustments to the target range [13]. - The US International Trade Court blocked the implementation of the tariff policy announced by the US President on April 2 (Liberation Day), ruling that the President exceeded his authority. The US government has appealed against this ruling [13]. - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the court's ruling to block the "Liberation Day" tariff is only a temporary setback for Trump's trade agenda, and the White House can use other tariff tools to offset the impact [13]. - The CEO of the Port of Antwerp - Bruges in Belgium said that European ports are facing serious congestion due to factors such as US tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [14].
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250530
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-30 02:05