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利民股份:AI+合成生物先行者,杀菌剂及杀虫剂景气上行-20250530
002734LMGF(002734)2025-05-30 07:30

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [6][21]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of fungicides, having built a comprehensive industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, covering pesticide raw materials/formulations, veterinary drugs, and new energy materials. Key products such as Bacillus thuringiensis, Mancozeb, Glyphosate, Abamectin, and Methomyl have significant production capacity in China. The company emphasizes R&D investment and is advancing a dual-driven strategy of "AI + Pesticides" and synthetic biology, which is expected to enhance its first-mover advantage in the field of green pesticide creation. In the short term, the company is expected to benefit from rising prices of its main products, leading to a recovery in profitability. In the long term, the AI + synthetic biology technology is anticipated to lead industry development, transitioning the company from a "traditional pesticide manufacturer" to a "smart agricultural solution provider" [4][12][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of fungicides in China, having established a full industrial chain through strategic mergers and acquisitions. Its core products have significant market shares domestically, and it is focusing on integrating AI algorithms with biological synthesis technology to strengthen its competitive edge in green pesticide innovation [4][13][26]. 2. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the company is expected to benefit from price increases in key products such as Abamectin, Methomyl, Bacillus thuringiensis, and Mancozeb, which will enhance profitability. Long-term prospects are bolstered by the company's strategic focus on AI and synthetic biology, which positions it to lead the industry and transition to providing smart agricultural solutions [12][18][21]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 51.1 billion, 55.5 billion, and 59.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +21%, +9%, and +8% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.5 billion, 5.2 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan, with growth rates of +448%, +16%, and +15% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.06, 1.23, and 1.42 yuan per share for the same period [16][21][17]. 4. Product Segmentation - The company has a diversified product matrix that includes fungicides, insecticides, herbicides, and veterinary drugs. It has established a strong market position with leading products in each category, supported by advanced production technologies and a focus on sustainable practices [4][12][36]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong market position with significant production capacities in key products. Its competitive advantages include advanced production processes, a focus on green manufacturing, and a stable supply chain, which collectively enhance its market resilience and growth potential [4][12][36].