永安期货有色早报-20250530

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with the monthly spread and premium slightly declining, which will have a positive impact on spot market consumption, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slow [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory depletion, and the monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the domestic - foreign positive spread at an appropriate time [2]. - There are opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, which can continue to be monitored [3]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [6]. - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long term [9]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weak in the long - term due to capacity expansion [9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: The domestic market continued to accumulate inventory slightly this week. The monthly spread and spot premium decreased, and spot trading improved. The LME inventory decreased by 1,925 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 3,275 tons [1]. - Supply - side: The Kamo' a mine had some mining areas shut down due to an earthquake, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have a negative impact on domestic TC [1]. - Demand - side: Domestic electrolytic copper consumption showed resilience. The State Grid issued the second - batch of tenders this week, and cable consumption and orders are expected to be strong in the remaining time of the second quarter. However, consumption in some sectors showed signs of weakening [1]. Aluminum - Market Data: Supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price rebounded with inventory depletion [1]. - Supply - side: The supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large [1]. - Demand - side: The demand decline from May to June is not obvious. Aluminum product exports are maintained, and photovoltaic demand declined slightly. There is still a supply - demand gap [1]. Zinc - Market Data: The zinc price oscillated this week. The domestic social inventory accumulation was slow, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - Supply - side: The domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared to the previous month [2]. - Demand - side: Domestic demand elasticity is limited, with weak orders in North China. Exports in East and South China can be maintained due to the easing of tariff sentiment. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [2]. Nickel - Market Data: The price of pure nickel decreased, and the overseas nickel plate inventory increased slightly [3]. - Supply - side: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3]. - Demand - side: The overall demand is weak, and the spot premium is maintained [3]. Stainless Steel - Market Data: The prices of various stainless - steel products remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [3]. - Supply - side: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3]. - Demand - side: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Lead - Market Data: The lead price oscillated and declined this week. The LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [6]. - Supply - side: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Recycling merchants panicked to sell due to concerns about price changes after the holiday. Mid - stream recycled smelters have concentrated production capacity, but the supply of waste batteries is tight, and most operate at half - capacity. The concentrate production increased from March to April [6]. - Demand - side: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and the overall demand is weak. The consumption is in the off - season, and orders only meet rigid needs [6]. Tin - Market Data: The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the cancelled warrants increased by 10 tons [8]. - Supply - side: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province have cut production, and those in Yunnan Province are struggling to maintain production [8]. - Demand - side: The elasticity of solder demand is limited. The growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline significantly. After the large - scale restocking by downstream enterprises, there is a lack of consumption - side impetus for further inventory reduction [8]. Industrial Silicon - Market Data: The market price remained low. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the overall inventory level is still high [9]. - Supply - side: Some large northern factories resumed production, and Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production. The overall start - up rate increased slightly. The enthusiasm of small and medium - sized factories to start production decreased [9]. - Demand - side: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is in a downward trend. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: The price of lithium carbonate decreased and then rebounded. The inventory accumulation speed slowed down this week [9]. - Supply - side: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua resumed, and small recycling factories cut production more severely. Some self - owned mines are at a loss, and high - position hedging is used for sales [9]. - Demand - side: The downstream demand is weak. The policies such as trade - in do not improve the demand as expected. The lithium ore price continues to decline, and the lithium price loses support [9].