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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be in a state where supply is sufficient and demand is relatively stable. The Fed's decision - making is affected by uncertainties, while China's economic indicators are improving. The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is likely to increase steadily, and the demand is stable due to the offset of seasonal consumption decline by domestic policies and trade recovery [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.24% and an amplitude of 1.41%. The closing price of the main contract was 77,600 yuan/ton [4]. - International and Domestic Situations: Abroad, the Fed's policy decision - making is uncertain; in China, economic indicators are improving, and debt sustainability is enhanced [4]. - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate processing fee is falling, and the international supply is tight, but China has sufficient port inventories and more raw material substitutes. The supply is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is relatively stable [4]. - Strategy: Light - position oscillating trading with attention to risk control [5] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Market: As of May 30, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 365 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 430 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 77,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton, and the position was 172,994 lots, a week - on - week increase of 20,589 lots [10]. - Spot Market: As of May 30, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,235 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. The premium of Shanghai copper bills of lading decreased, and the long - position held an advantage. The average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 101 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [14][21]. - Option Market: As of May 30, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of the Shanghai copper option position was 1.1701, a decrease of 0.0943 from last week [26] 3.3. Upstream Situation - Raw Material Prices: The price of copper concentrates in the main domestic mining areas weakened, and the processing fee for blister copper strengthened. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 310 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Imports and Price Differences: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth of 22.2% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,493.41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [34]. - Production and Inventory: As of March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.969 million tons, an increase of 202,000 tons from February, a growth of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 147,000 tons from the previous period [39] 3.4. Industry Situation - Supply - Refined Copper Production: As of April 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from March, a growth of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 10.39%. As of March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.426 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons from February, a growth of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [42]. - Supply - Imports: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 300,181.941 tons, a decrease of 54,093.53 tons from March, a decline of 15.27% and a year - on - year decline of 1.83%. The import profit and loss amount was - 606.91 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 657.24 yuan/ton [49][50]. - Supply - Inventory: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory decreased by 12,350 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 4,870 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 722 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 139,300 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [55] 3.5. Downstream and Application - Demand - Copper Products Production and Imports: As of April 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.081 million tons, a decrease of 44,200 tons from March, a decline of 2.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from March, a decline of 6.38% and a year - on - year decline of 0% [61]. - Application - Power Grid and Appliance Production: As of April 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 1.6% and 14.6% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.6%, 1.6%, - 10.7%, - 15.3%, and - 9.8% year - on - year respectively [65]. - Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production: As of April 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 277.2957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month increase of 39.32%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 15.089 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 37.84% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: As of March 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 20,500 tons [75]