铝类市场周报：供给稳定需求偏淡，铝类或将有所承压-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market may face pressure due to stable supply and weak demand. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand [6]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum and light - position oscillating transactions for the main contract of alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend, with a weekly change of - 0.42%, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 6.53%, closing at 2,962 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: Internationally, there is uncertainty about the Fed's policy. Domestically, the economy is showing positive signs. Fundamentally, there may be a slight reduction in bauxite supply. Alumina supply may slightly decrease, while demand remains stable. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively sufficient, and demand is in a transition from peak to off - season, with a controllable decline [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: As of May 30, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,175 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from May 23. As of May 29, 2025, the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,450.5 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton (- 1.01%) from May 22 [10]. - Position Volume: As of May 30, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai aluminum was 514,908 lots, down 3,005 lots (- 0.58%) from May 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 7,950 lots from May 23 [13]. - Futures Spreads: As of May 30, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton from May 23. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from May 23 [19]. - Spot Prices: As of May 30, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,240 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton (- 0.78%) from May 23. The spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22]. - Inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, down 13,825 tons (- 3.55%) from May 21. As of May 30, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,433 tons, down 16,856 tons (- 11.93%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 482,000 tons, down 37,000 tons (- 7.13%) from May 22 [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Bauxite: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [29]. - Alumina: As of May 30, 2025, the alumina futures price was 3,081 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan/ton (- 4.38%) from May 23. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The import volume was 107,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%. The export volume was 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.33% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33][36]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In April 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The export volume was 13,700 tons. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 34,200 tons. In April 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 375,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 1.4793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - Aluminum Products: In April 2025, the output of aluminum products was 576,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.1117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The export volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%, and the export volume was 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [47]. - Aluminum Alloys: In April 2025, the output of aluminum alloys was 152,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 576,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import volume was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%. The export volume was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. From January to April, the cumulative import volume was 367,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.22%, and the export volume was 70,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% [50]. - Real Estate: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous month and an increase of 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.13%. The housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.37% [53]. - Infrastructure and Automobiles: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%. The automobile production volume was 2,618,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillating and pressured operation of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [59].