合成橡胶市场周报-20250530

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. The ex - factory price is high, but the monthly settlement price is low. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but still has a large loss. The continuous large - scale loss in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical has gradually started, and the supply is expected to continue to decrease [7]. - The prices of related rubber varieties have weakened recently. The continuous decline in the spot market price of butadiene rubber still fails to attract trading. The inventories of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises have both increased this week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased this week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production reduction phenomena, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline [7]. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Raw material sentiment has subsided, production cost has decreased slightly but with large losses. Supply is expected to decrease, inventories have increased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.15% [11]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of May 30, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 150 [18]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of May 30, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,210 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of May 29, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - Basis: As of May 29, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of May 29, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.28 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of May 30, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3%, an increase of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory was 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [33] 3.5 Industry Situation - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.54%, a decrease of 1.82% from last week [37]. - Production Profit: As of May 29, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of May 28, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of May 30, the manufacturer inventory was 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons from last week [45] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Tire Capacity Utilization Rate: As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year [48]. - Tire Export Volume: In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% month - on - month and an increase of 6.11% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% year - on - year [52].