豆类市场周报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, in the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected to trade in a range, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [6]. - For soybean No. 2, due to the seasonal supply glut in South America, it is under pressure to move, with a multi - and short - factors intertwined situation and an expected volatile movement [7]. - For soybean meal, given the ample supply, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [8]. - For soybean oil, it is likely to maintain a weakly volatile trend, and the short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Soybean No. 1: This week, the main 2507 contract fell 1.32% to close at 4117 yuan/ton. In the future, domestic soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to a weak supply - demand balance [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The main 2509 contract declined 0.34% to 3559 yuan/ton. The market focuses on US soybean planting weather, and South American supply is seasonally abundant, putting pressure on prices [7]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2968 yuan/ton. With increasing soybean arrivals and rising inventory, it is expected to trade weakly [8]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2509 contract dropped 1.75% to 7638 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to trade weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Changes: Soybean No. 1 prices fell, soybean meal prices rose, and soybean oil prices declined this week [11][18][24]. - Spread Changes: The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal widened, while that of soybean oil narrowed [30][33]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes: The net position of soybean No. 1 futures increased, and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean meal, both the net position and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean oil, both the net position and warehouse receipts increased [42][49][56]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Price and Basis Changes: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis increased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis narrowed; the spot price of soybean oil decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [62][70][76]. - Imported Bean Premium and Cost Changes: The FOB premiums of US, Argentine, and Brazilian soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans decreased [80][86]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - Supply - Side Changes: The expected production of US soybeans in the new year decreased, and inventory decreased; the expected production of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased; the expected production of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased [101][106][111]. - Planting and Harvesting Progress: The US soybean planting progress was fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress exceeded 80% [115]. - Export - Related Changes: US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and export sales volume increased; Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [121][126]. 3.3.2 Domestic Industry - Inventory Changes: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, soybean meal inventory increased, and soybean oil inventory increased month - on - month [130][134][138]. - Oil Mill Operation: The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [142]. - Import and Arrival Volume: The month - on - month import volume of soybeans in April increased, and the expected arrival volume of soybeans in May increased month - on - month [148][152]. - Profit Changes: The profit of domestic soybeans decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market increased [156]. 3.3.3 Substitute Products - Price Changes: The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil rose; the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased; the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][170][175]. - Spread Changes: The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, and the rapeseed - soybean spread widened [166]. 3.3.4 Transaction Volume - The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil increased [181]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - Price and Profit Changes: The price of live pigs rose, and the price of piglets fell; the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [186][192]. - Demand - Side Changes: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month; the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased month - on - month; the domestic consumption of Chinese soybeans and soybean oil increased in the 2024/25 year [196][201][205]. 3.5 Options Market Based on the trend of soybean meal, which is expected to trade weakly in a range, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [213].