碳酸锂市场周报：供给偏多库存高位，碳酸锂或承压运行-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract showed a weakly oscillating trend on the weekly chart, with a weekly decline of 1.9% and an amplitude of 4.82%. The main contract was quoted at 59,800 yuan/ton [5]. - In June, the supply side of the lithium carbonate fundamentals may slightly contract, while the demand side remains stable but with a slowing growth rate. The market supply - demand situation is still in a stage of high inventory and excessive supply [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position trading with a weakly oscillating strategy and pay attention to trading rhythms to control risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The lithium carbonate main contract oscillated weakly on the weekly chart, with a closing price of 59,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.9%, and an amplitude of 4.82% [5]. - Macroeconomic Situation: Since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macro - economic control policies, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced long - term debt sustainability [5]. - Lithium Carbonate Fundamentals - Raw Material End: Overseas miners still have a price - holding sentiment. Due to shipping pressure and the drag of lithium carbonate prices, the pricing has been continuously weakening, but the decline is smaller than that of lithium carbonate spot prices [5]. - Supply Side: The cost support of smelters is weakening as the decline rate of lithium ore prices is slower than that of spot prices. Due to the rapid decline of lithium carbonate prices, smelters are suffering from cost - profit inversion, leading to an increasing number of production cuts and maintenance [5]. - Import and Export: The volume and price of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China are both decreasing. It is expected that after this batch arrives at ports in China, there will also be a decrease in import volume and price [5]. - Demand Side: The growth rate of new orders for downstream battery material processing enterprises is gradually slowing down approaching the end of the consumption peak season. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, with weak purchasing willingness, and most of the spot transactions are through customer - supplied processing or long - term contracts [5]. - Inventory: Lithium carbonate inventory remains at a high level [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Conduct light - position trading with a weakly oscillating strategy and pay attention to trading rhythms to control risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of May 30, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 59,800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,160 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,360 yuan/ton [8]. - Spot Price: As of May 30, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2,350 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 900 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,190 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Spodumene: As of May 30, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 718 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1916, a weekly decline of 0.17% [20]. - Lepidolite: As of May 30, 2025, the average price of lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,607 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 113 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 6,765 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 285 yuan/ton [25]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of April 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,335.89 tons, an increase of 10,210.4 tons from March, a growth rate of 56.33%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 33.63%. The monthly export volume was 734.289 tons, an increase of 514.26 tons from March, a growth rate of 233.72%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 112.99%. The monthly output was 47,900 tons, an increase of 4,720 tons from March, a growth rate of 10.93%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.68%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [30]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of May 30, 2025, the average price was 52,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 11,000 yuan/ton. As of April 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 160,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March, a growth rate of 2.55%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 34.96% [33]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 31,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 196,600 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from March, a growth rate of 10.08%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 19.73%. The monthly operating rate was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 10% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [38]. - Ternary Materials: As of April 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,500 tons, an increase of 8,450 tons from March, a growth rate of 15.63%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.53%. The monthly operating rate was 53%, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 types continued to weaken [41]. - Lithium Manganate: As of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,500 tons, an increase of 830 tons from March, a growth rate of 8.58%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 46.65%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 28,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of April 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 11,800 tons, an increase of 4,630 tons from March, a growth rate of 64.57%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 66.2%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [50]. - New - Energy Vehicles - Sales: As of April 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 42.74%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 10.36%. The monthly output was 1,251,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; the sales volume was 1,226,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% [52]. - Exports: As of April 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 642,000 vehicles, a year - on - year growth rate of 52.49% [57]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.02, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to go long on volatility by constructing a long straddle option strategy [60].