原油成品油早报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are oscillating strongly. In the medium - long term, crude oil will maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Iran's Foreign Minister is "not sure" about approaching an agreement with the US. While US President Trump said they are "very close" to a deal, which may be reached in the "coming weeks" [3] - After the US court ruled the tariff illegal, oil prices rose and then fell. The ruling boosted market risk - appetite and eased concerns about global economic slowdown. The White House will appeal the decision. The possible new sanctions on Russia led to a slight increase in oil prices, but the expected OPEC+ production increase in July offset some of this impact [3] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the oil production policy and plans to use 2025 production as the benchmark for 2027. The potential production increase plans of eight countries will be discussed on Saturday. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production after the July increase [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4] - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the same period last year [4] - In the week of May 23, US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from local refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [4] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices oscillated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result [5] - Fundamentally, global refined oil inventories decreased this week. US commercial crude inventories increased seasonally, with absolute inventories lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly [5] - On the supply side, the number of US crude oil drilling rigs decreased significantly, and OPEC's planned production increase was in line with expectations. On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. US refinery operating rates increased slightly, the summer travel season is approaching, global flight numbers are increasing, and the operating rate of domestic refineries is recovering [5]