瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The decline in the profit rate of domestic industrial enterprises above designated size in April and changes in US trade policies affected market sentiment, and market trading activity decreased slightly compared to last week. For stocks, a cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - Recently, US Treasury yields have slightly declined, and the Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. If the US dollar index continues to weaken, it may ease exchange - rate pressure and widen the policy space for the central bank's interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern, and a cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - The uncertainty brought by US trade policies has intensified commodity fluctuations, and the commodity fundamentals remain weak. The commodity index is expected to continue its oscillatory downward trend, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [6]. - The US economic data is turning weaker, the employment market shows signs of weakness, and the fiscal deficit problem persists. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, and the US dollar is relatively pressured. The eurozone economy remains weak, but the euro shows an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The Japanese yen is relatively pressured. A cautious and wait - and - see approach is recommended for foreign exchange [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, major A - share indices generally declined. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, with small - and medium - cap stocks stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks (IM>IC>IF>IH). The decline in the profit rate of domestic industrial enterprises above designated size in April and changes in US trade policies led to large market sentiment fluctuations, and the market trading activity decreased slightly compared to last week. The recommended allocation strategy is to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - Recently, US Treasury yields have slightly declined, and the Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. If the US dollar index continues to weaken, it may ease exchange - rate pressure and widen the policy space for the central bank's interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts. Currently, the bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and there are no clear short - term positive or negative factors. It is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern. The recommended allocation strategy is to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The uncertainty brought by US trade policies has intensified commodity fluctuations, and the commodity fundamentals remain weak. The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.35%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell 1.35%. The commodity index is expected to continue its oscillatory downward trend. The recommended allocation strategy is to short on rallies [6]. Foreign Exchange - The US economic data is turning weaker, the employment market shows signs of weakness, and the fiscal deficit problem persists. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance, and the US dollar is relatively pressured. The eurozone economy remains weak, but the euro shows an oscillatory pattern in the short term due to positive expectations of tariff negotiations. The Japanese yen is relatively pressured as Japan's CPI rises again and the government plans to cut long - term bond issuance. The recommended allocation strategy is to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - The Ministry of Finance responded to Moody's maintaining China's sovereign credit rating, stating that China's economic indicators are improving, and debt sustainability is strengthening. - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of China - Germany and China - EU relations. - Eight departments jointly issued a plan to accelerate the development of digital and intelligent supply chains. - Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN - China - GCC Summit, proposing to strengthen cooperation in multiple fields [14]. - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. - US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. - The EU plans to cut carbon emissions by 54% by 2030. - The Bank of Japan still considers further interest rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data | Country/Region | Index Name | Previous Value | Expected Value | Current Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China | Year - to - date profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in April | 0.8 | - | 1.4 | | US | Monthly rate of durable goods orders in April | 7.5 | - 7.8 | - 6.3 | | US | Annual rate of S&P/CS 20 - city unadjusted house prices in March | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | | US | Number of initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending May 24 | 22.6 | 23 | 24 | | US | Revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter | - 0.3 | - 0.3 | - 0.2 | | US | Monthly rate of pending home sales index in April | 5.5 | - 1 | - 6.3 | | EU | Industrial sentiment index in May | - 11 | - 10.5 | - 10.3 | | Germany | Seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in May | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | | France | Preliminary monthly rate of CPI in May | 0.6 | 0.1 | - 0.1 | | France | Final annual rate of GDP in the first quarter | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | [17] 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events | Date | Time | Index Name/Economic Event | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/2 | 22:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI in May | 48.7 | | 2025/6/3 | 17:00 | Eurozone unemployment rate in April | 6.2 | | 2025/6/3 | 22:00 | US monthly rate of factory orders in April | 4.3 | | 2025/6/4 | 20:15 | US ADP employment change (in ten thousand) in May | 6.2 | | 2025/6/5 | 17:00 | Eurozone monthly rate of PPI in April | - 1.6 | | 2025/6/5 | 20:15 | Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of June 5 | 2.25 | | 2025/6/5 | 20:30 | US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending May 31 | - | | 2025/6/5 | 20:30 | US trade balance (in billion US dollars) in April | - 1405 | | 2025/6/6 | 14:00 | Germany's seasonally - adjusted monthly rate of industrial output in April | 3 | | 2025/6/6 | 14:45 | France's monthly rate of industrial output in April | 0.2 | | 2025/6/6 | 17:00 | Eurozone revised annual rate of GDP in the first quarter | 1.2 | | 2025/6/6 | 17:00 | Eurozone monthly rate of retail sales in April | - 0.1 | | 2025/6/6 | 20:30 | US unemployment rate in May | 4.2 | | 2025/6/6 | 20:30 | US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in ten thousand) in May | 17.7 | [83]