摩根士丹利：多行业-中国 5 月出口 看似小丘而非大山

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [7] Core Insights - The anticipated surge in China exports during the 90-day tariff pause has not materialized, with exports showing only a mild recovery of approximately 30% from April lows, remaining below the last twelve months' average and slightly down year-over-year [4][10] - Domestic US inventories are considered outsized due to a period of tariff pull forward, leading to risks for short-cycle production rates in the second half of 2025 [4][9] - US import volumes have softened, particularly at major ports like LA and Long Beach, indicating a sluggish demand environment [4][12] Summary by Sections Section: China Exports - Daily China maritime exports have rebounded but remain soft, indicating well-stocked domestic US inventories [2][4] - The expected influx of imports during the tariff pause did not occur, leading to a situation described as a "mole hill" rather than a "mountain" of exports [4][10] Section: US Imports and Inventory - Over $180 billion of imports have been pulled forward since the election, impacting customer balance sheets and crystallizing sales negatively [8][13] - Companies within the coverage, such as MMM, SWK, LII, CARR, and EMR, are identified as most at risk for channel digestion in the second half of 2025 due to the pre-buy phenomenon [9] Section: Market Dynamics - The report highlights a concern that corporations are not seeing the expected pre-buy during Q1, with inventories ramping higher at major US retailers and manufacturers [16] - The analysis suggests that price action will be a catalyst for destocking, with price increases not expected to fully ramp until Q3 [9]