美银：股票策略-中国消费者-对 “幸福” 的追求

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for select stocks that align with the "HAPPI" themes, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [60]. Core Insights - The Chinese market has outperformed year-to-date, driven by low positioning, potential policy support, and a large domestic market, but the absolute upside may be limited due to high valuations [8][12]. - Consumer confidence remains low, with challenges in the economy and consumption growth, particularly in traditional sectors [2][12]. - The report emphasizes a barbell strategy, suggesting defensive investments in high-yield state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and growth stocks focused on domestic consumption for alpha generation [8][12]. Summary by Sections Finding Alpha in a Range-Trading Market - The MSCI China Index has risen mid-teens percentage year-to-date, outperforming global peers, but is near its valuation ceiling at 11.2x P/E [8][10]. - A barbell strategy is recommended, combining high-yield SOEs and domestic-focused growth stocks [8]. Overall Consumption Still Challenged - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.7% YoY in 4M25, up from 4.1% in 4M24, but consumer confidence remains low due to high youth unemployment and deflationary pressures [17][22]. - The property market is showing signs of weakness, and competition in consumer sectors is fierce [2][12]. Generating Alpha from "HAPPIness" - The report highlights the "HAPPI" themes: Health & wellness, Affordable, Pragmatic, Personal/emotional value, and Intellectual Property [6][36]. - Stocks with clear value propositions in these areas are preferred over large-cap premium brands [36]. Consumer Goods and Services - The food and beverage sector is under pressure, but selected companies are seeing growth driven by health trends and product innovation [62]. - The beverage industry, particularly energy drinks and health-focused products, is outperforming traditional alcoholic beverages [38][62]. Key Stocks - Notable stocks include Anta, Eastroc, Feihe, and Pop Mart, all of which align with the "HAPPI" themes and show strong growth potential [60][61].