摩根士丹利：中国半导体-应对人工智能资本支出波动以及关税 外汇波动

Investment Rating - The industry view on Greater China Semiconductors is rated as "In-Line" [3]. Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on cloud AI demand, supported by US cloud service providers indicating strong AI capital expenditure (capex) intensity in the near future [1][3]. - Concerns exist regarding semiconductor tariffs and foreign exchange (FX) impacts; however, these are not expected to significantly affect the long-term profitability of TSMC, which is identified as a top pick [1][3]. - The report highlights that AI semiconductors are projected to account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027 [19]. Summary by Sections AI Semiconductor Outlook - The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, which is spreading across various sectors beyond the semiconductor industry [5]. - The anticipated total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI in China is projected to reach USD 48 billion by 2027 [51]. Company Valuations - TSMC's current price is 967.0 TWD with a target price of 1,288.0 TWD, indicating a 33% upside potential [6]. - Winbond is also highlighted as a top pick with a current price of 17.7 TWD and a target price of 25.0 TWD, representing a 41% upside [6]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the semiconductor inventory days have declined, which historically signals positive price appreciation for semiconductor stocks [5][10]. - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on AI recovery in the second half of 2025, suggesting that tariff costs could hinder growth [5]. FX and Tariff Impacts - The report indicates that a 1% appreciation in the TWD against the USD could lead to a 40 basis points (bps) decline in gross margin for TSMC, but the overall structural profitability remains intact [27]. - The TWD has appreciated by 9.46% quarter-to-date, which could impact earnings but is not expected to harm fundamental profitability [24][27]. Supply Chain and Production - The report mentions that the supply ramp of China fabs has contributed to a prolonged downcycle in mature node foundries and niche memory sectors [5]. - The domestic GPU supply chain is expected to improve, with local GPU revenue projected to grow significantly by 2027, driven by advancements in SMIC's leading node capacity [52][54].