摩根士丹利：全球投资者在关注什么？

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [8] Core Insights - The fiscal year 2026 (F3/26) plans of the banks covered are conservative and fully account for downside risks, with net interest income being the primary driver of year-over-year profit growth [4][11] - Megabanks are factoring in tariff impacts, leading to rising credit costs and a decline in stock-related income, with consolidated net profit guidance for F3/26 set at ¥940 billion for Mizuho FG and ¥1.3 trillion for SMFG [5] - Shareholder return policies are being strengthened, with Mizuho FG targeting a total return ratio of 50% or more and a dividend increase of ¥5 per share per fiscal year [6] Summary by Sections Bank Guidance - The banks' F3/26 plans incorporate potential risks, with net interest income expected to drive profit growth, and interest rate hikes anticipated to contribute positively [4][11] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is evident in increased credit costs and reduced income from domestic corporate and asset management businesses, necessitating conservative planning by banks [5] Shareholder Returns - New shareholder return policies have been announced, emphasizing stable dividends and share buybacks, particularly by Mizuho FG and SMFG [6] Interest Rates and Deposits - The competition for deposit acquisition is expected to intensify, with potential increases in pass-through rates for time deposits [13] - The direct impact of rising long-term Japanese government bond yields on banks is expected to be limited, as banks do not hold significant amounts of ultra-long-term bonds [12]