日本消费行业4月跟踪报告：事件驱动下增长仍然乏力

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Growth in the Japanese consumer sector remains weak despite event-driven catalysts such as the Osaka Expo and the Golden Week holiday, with retail markets not showing expected significant growth [2][13] - External demand has shifted due to yen appreciation and changing trade environments, leading to a preference for everyday goods over luxury items among overseas tourists [2][13] - Domestic consumer sentiment is cautious, with a decline in the willingness to travel domestically during the Golden Week, reflecting a conservative household consumption attitude [2][13] Macroeconomic Overview - The core CPI in Japan rose by 3.6% year-on-year in April, maintaining the same level as March, while the core CPI excluding fresh food increased by 3.5%, surpassing previous values and market expectations [9] - The consumer confidence index fell to 31.2 in April, marking the lowest level since February 2023, with a continuous decline for five months [7] - Real wages decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in March, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures on household purchasing power [7][9] Essential Consumption - Essential retail sales showed mixed results, with PPIH, 711, and Aeon reporting same-store sales growth of +6.3%, +1.8%, and +1.0% respectively, driven by higher average transaction values [3][14] - Sales of daily consumer goods like beer saw a significant decline in April, highlighting consumer sensitivity to price changes [3][20] - Drugstore chains like Matsukiyo Cocokara and Welcia reported same-store sales growth of +3.9% and +2.5% respectively, indicating a positive trend in essential goods [3][18] Discretionary Consumption - Duty-free sales continued to decline for the second consecutive month, with a drop of 26.7% in April due to policy changes and a high base from the previous year [4][34] - Restaurant same-store sales showed varied performance, with notable growth in chains like Saizeriya and Skylark, while McDonald's experienced a decline in customer traffic [4][26] - Apparel sales were mixed, with ABC-MART and other brands showing positive growth, while Uniqlo faced a decline due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting summer product demand [4][29] Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index for retail, food and beverage, and service industries showed increases of +5.6%, +3.8%, and +1.4% respectively in April, while the textile and apparel sector declined by -7.4% [5] - Investment suggestions focus on companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [5]