美元例外或才是历史的例外？——特朗普“对等关税”观察（二）

Group 1: Historical Context of Global Currencies - Since 1500, there have been three major changes in global currencies, with the transition from the British pound to the US dollar being the most recent[6] - The dollar began to surpass the pound in economic size after 1870, but only significantly led in global trade after World War II[7] - Historical transitions of global currencies often coincide with the rise and fall of major powers, indicating a strong correlation between a nation's economic strength and its currency's status[18] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The US debt level is currently higher than during World War II, with projections indicating that public debt as a percentage of GDP could reach 156% by 2055, up from 98% in 2024[38] - If the dollar ceases to be the global currency, long-term US Treasury rates could rise by up to 80 basis points, with current trends showing a 55 basis point increase despite a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve[9] - The dollar's value relative to other currencies and gold may decline, as historical data shows significant depreciation during past currency transitions[9] Group 3: Future Implications and Risks - The potential end of the dollar's status as the global currency could lead to significant disruptions in capital markets, affecting stocks, bonds, and exchange rates[56] - The current geopolitical climate, including trade tensions and tariff policies, may accelerate the transition away from the dollar, reminiscent of historical precedents[62] - The historical pattern suggests that major currency transitions are often accompanied by economic crises or wars, indicating that the US may face similar challenges if it does not address its debt issues[60]