Zijin Mining(601899)2025-06-02 15:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" with a target price of HK$24.40, representing an expected return of 36.3% from the current price of HK$17.90 [5]. Core Insights - The Kamoa-Kakula project is expected to contribute approximately 5.4% to Zijin's total net profit in FY24, with a net profit of Rmb1.7 billion from this project in 2024 [2][3]. - The copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula project is set at 520-580kt for 2025, which will account for 20%-22% of Zijin's total copper production guidance for that year [2][4]. - Zijin is planning to spin off and list eight gold mining assets, targeting completion before the end of 2025, subject to approval [3]. - The Manono lithium project is anticipated to commence operations in 2026, with a production guidance of 250-300kt by 2028 [4]. Summary by Sections Kamoa-Kakula Project - The underground mining activities at Kakula Mine have been suspended, while the phase 1+2 processing plant has started processing surface stockpiles totaling 3.8 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 3.2% copper [2]. - The phase 3 processing plant continues to operate normally, and the overall impact on production and cost guidance is still under investigation [2]. Gold Spin-off - The management of Zijin is actively working on restructuring to facilitate the spin-off and listing of eight gold mining assets, with a completion target before the end of 2025 [3]. Lithium Project - The Manono lithium project is expected to be operational by 2026, with a production target of 250-300kt in 2028 [4]. Financial Overview - Zijin's market capitalization is approximately HK$475.739 billion (US$60.693 billion), with an expected dividend yield of 2.3% and a total expected return of 38.7% [5][7].