世界经济最新消息：美国第一季度GDP因贸易冲击而萎缩 - 彭博

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging economic environment for the U.S. with a contraction in GDP due to trade impacts and declining consumer spending [7][4][10]. Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, primarily driven by significant trade shocks and a larger-than-expected decline in consumer spending, which grew by only 1.2%, revised down from an initial estimate of 1.8% [7][4][10]. - In contrast, Canada saw a boost in its economy due to a surge in exports ahead of tariff increases, contributing positively to its GDP growth [10][16]. - India's GDP growth outperformed expectations, reaching 7.4%, driven by a recovery in agricultural activities and investments [28][27]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted in early 2025, reflecting a significant impact from trade-related tariffs and a notable drop in consumer spending [7][4][10]. - The contribution from net exports was a drag of nearly 5 percentage points, marking the largest recorded impact [8][7]. Canadian Economic Performance - Canada experienced strong export growth due to pre-tariff shipment increases, which helped offset weaknesses in other economic sectors [10][16]. - Preliminary data suggests that the Canadian economy maintained growth momentum into the second quarter, with a 0.1% increase in output in April [10]. Indian Economic Performance - India's economy showed signs of recovery with a growth rate of 7.4%, the highest in four quarters, supported by agricultural and investment rebounds [28][27]. - Despite being the fastest-growing major economy, India's growth rate has slowed compared to its historical average of around 8% [28].