融达期货铁合金周报-宏观扰动难改黑色弱势，关注合金厂复产预期差

Group 1: Market Overview - The current price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5200-5300 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 2250 CNY[15] - The total production of silicon iron in May is estimated at 405,200 tons, a decrease of 41,700 tons from April, indicating a supply reduction[24] - The average operating rate for silicon iron producers is 46.39%, down 4.28% month-on-month, reflecting a decline in production capacity utilization[27] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is reported at 5624 CNY/ton, with a loss of 324 CNY, while costs in Ningxia and Gansu are 5830.51 CNY/ton and 5733 CNY/ton, respectively, both showing significant losses[24] - The price of manganese silicon is reported at 5500-5550 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 200 CNY from the previous week, and a year-on-year drop of 3150 CNY[8] - Manganese ore prices are under pressure, with half-carbonate reported at 33-33.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market[8] Group 3: Supply and Demand Trends - The inventory of silicon iron at steel mills has decreased to 15.3 days, down 1.55% from the previous month, indicating a tightening supply situation[38] - Manganese silicon inventory has decreased significantly, with a total of 536,865 tons, down 20,905 tons from the previous week, suggesting a reduction in available supply[10] - The overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with trade transactions being limited and a lack of willingness to stockpile materials[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a weak support level around 5200 CNY for the July contract, with ongoing concerns about production recovery in Ningxia[4] - The anticipated recovery in production may not meet expectations, as the industry continues to face significant losses and a prolonged downtrend[54] - The overall industry is experiencing a prolonged period of losses, with over 90% of production currently operating at a loss, indicating a challenging environment ahead[54]