大越期货尿素早报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high supply and weak demand in the short term. The export policy has been implemented, and although the export profit is high, it has little impact on domestic prices. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has declined recently. Supply-side factors include high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short-term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, while that of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is weak in the short term. The international urea price is strong, and the export policy has been implemented, resulting in high export profits but little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a neutral position [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract has reversed to a long position, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined, with high daily production, short-term inventory fluctuations, weak agricultural demand in the short term, and price decline after the implementation of the export policy. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - Bullish Factors: The theoretical export profit is high [5]. - Bearish Factors: High daily production and operation rates, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. - Main Logic: High daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - Spot Market: The price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), the price of Shandong spot is 1880 (+0), the price of Henan spot is 1860 (+0), and the FOB China price is 2592 [6]. - Futures Market: The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 contracts have all declined, with decreases of 8, 8, and 6 respectively [6]. Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - 2018 - 2024: From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. The ending inventory has remained relatively stable [10]. - 2025E: The production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].