大越期货天胶早报-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The market is dominated by market sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are falling [6]. - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on May 30 [10]. - The base price is 95 with a spot price of 13,500, showing a bullish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamentals Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is relatively strong [6][8]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [16][19][6]. - Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on May 30. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available [10]. - Import: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [25][28][31][34]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - Likely to Rise: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are relatively strong [8]. - Likely to Fall: Supply is increasing, market inventory is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].