大越期货燃料油早报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure declined slightly, but the further decline is limited due to limited supply of qualified refined products in the next two weeks. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly overall, with FU2507 operating strongly in the range of 3000 - 3050 and LU2507 in the range of 3550 - 3600, influenced by the overnight sharp rise in crude oil and the subsequent decline in cargo arrivals [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fuel oil market has different influencing factors. The cash premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has been weak for four consecutive days, the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has declined slightly, and the decline is limited. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 362000 barrels to 22.019 million barrels in the week ending May 28. The high - sulfur main position has more long orders and an increase in longs, while the low - sulfur main position has short orders and a decrease in shorts. The overnight crude oil rose sharply due to geopolitical fluctuations, and the fuel oil is expected to run strongly [3] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: OPEC+ additional production cuts are extended (but implementation needs to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4] - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] - Market Drivers: The supply - side production cuts need to be observed, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: The cash premium of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has been weak for four consecutive days, and the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has declined slightly, but the decline is limited due to limited supply in the next two weeks; neutral [3] - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $428.39 per ton with a basis of 125 yuan per ton, and the basis of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is $495.5 per ton with a basis of 170 yuan per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week ending May 28 was 22.019 million barrels, a decrease of 3.62 million barrels; bullish [3] - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat; neutral [3] - Main Position: The high - sulfur main position has long orders and an increase in longs, bullish; the low - sulfur main position has short orders and a decrease in shorts, bearish [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide a specific summary of spread data, but only presents the historical data chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread [13] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from March 19 to May 28 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease in the week ending May 28. There are also charts of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends [8]