大越期货菜粕早报-20250603

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. It is currently influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, and the impact of China's tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. In the short - term, it shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, but the long - term trend is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal nature of demand [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in the 2600 - 2660 range. The fundamentals show that it is driven by soybean meal and technical buying. The low operation of oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is gradually rising, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is increasing, but the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but its impact is limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is emerging from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual production of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Globally, the rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical situation may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish: The increase in the arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed after March; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From May 21 to May 30, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow, and the spread of the 2509 contract remained oscillatory. The rapeseed meal futures price showed an upward trend, while the spot price followed the relatively weak soybean meal, and the spot discount slightly expanded [13][14][20]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed stopped falling and rebounded, while the rapeseed meal inventory slightly declined [9][28]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables show the changes in harvest area, output, supply, demand, and inventory from 2014 to 2023 [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9].