大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the raw material end. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - The raw material maintenance season in the second quarter leads to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons, which supports price rebounds. However, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism increases export costs by 8% - 12%, and the domestic polyester industry has issues such as low average operating rates and high inventory at historical levels [8][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA Daily View - Fundamentals: On Friday, the mainstream price of PTA for mid - late June at the main port was 09 + 220 in transactions, with sporadic deals at 09 + 215, and the price negotiation range was around 4,895 - 5,000. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 219, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 4,940, and the basis of the 09 contract is 240, indicating the futures price is at a discount, which is a bullish factor. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish. - Expectation: Last week, PTA plants had both maintenance and restart operations. The supply - demand pattern is acceptable. After continuous de - stocking, the spot market has tight liquidity, and the spot basis is strong. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production. It is expected that the short - term spot price of PTA will fluctuate within a range following the cost side, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC + meeting on oil prices and changes in polyester plants [5][6]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) had a narrow range adjustment, and the market trading was average. The price center had limited fluctuations, with the spot mainstream negotiation at a premium of 150 - 158 yuan/ton to the 09 contract, mainly for traders' position - swapping operations. In the US dollar market, negotiations for MEG shipments were weak. The negotiation range for recent shipments was around 525 - 527 US dollars/ton, and far - month shipments were at a discount of 4 - 5 US dollars/ton, with few transactions in the market, showing a neutral situation. - Basis: The spot price is 4,488, and the basis of the 09 contract is 139, indicating the futures price is at a discount, which is a bullish factor. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. - Main Position: The main net short position is decreasing, which is bearish. - Expectation: Last week, the port shipment efficiency of ethylene glycol was good, and the number of foreign - bound arrivals was scarce. It is expected that the port inventory will see a significant decrease after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the inventory in the mainstream trading tanks in Zhangjiagang will likely fall below 200,000 tons. In June, the available transferable spot of ethylene glycol is still in short supply, and the spot basis will mainly remain strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts. In the medium - to - short - term, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is favorable, which supports the price. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in polyester production loads [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table - The table shows data on PTA capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, demand, exports, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table - The table presents data on ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, imports, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price Data - Includes spot prices of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers, as well as futures contract prices and basis, and processing margins and profits of different products on May 30 and May 29, 2025 [13]. Price Section - Presents historical price data trends of PET bottle chips, production gross margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads of PTA and ethylene glycol from multiple years, with data sources from Wind [14][40]. Inventory Analysis Section - Displays historical inventory data trends of PTA plants, ethylene glycol ports, PET slices, and various polyester products in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Wind [41][45]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operation Section - Shows the historical operating rate data trends of upstream and downstream industries in the polyester industry chain, including PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from multiple years, with data sources from Wind [52][56]. Processing Margin and Profit Section - Presents historical data trends of PTA processing margins and ethylene glycol production gross margins from multiple years, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel, and also mentions that profit calculations are mainly for trend observation [60][65].