铁矿石早报（2025-6-3）-20250603

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decline and the arrival volume at ports remaining high this month. The port inventory is increasing, and there are rumors of a crude steel production cut policy. Considering the reduction in domestic demand and increase in imports, the report suggests an oscillating and bearish outlook for iron ore [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival volume at ports remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of a crude steel production cut policy, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 820, with a basis of 118; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 795, with a basis of 93. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,469.58 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Market Chart: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: With reduced domestic demand and increased imports, an oscillating and bearish view is adopted [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: Steel mills' replenishment has increased, port inventory has decreased, import is at a loss, and the trade war is easing [5]. - Bearish Factors: Future shipment volume will increase, terminal demand remains weak, there are rumors of a domestic crude steel production cut policy, and no strong stimulus policies have been introduced [5].