大越期货沪铜早报-20250603

Group 1: Report's Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry [2] - The basis shows a premium over futures, which is neutral [2] - Copper inventories decreased on June 2nd, and SHFE copper inventories decreased from the previous week, which is neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is neutral [2] - The main position is net long but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and increased uncertainty of US trade tariffs [2] - The logic of recent market trends is related to domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3] Group 2: Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [22] Group 3: Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - The processing fee has declined [16]