LPG早报-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are still weak overall, with expected overall supply growth, some support from Shandong's chemical demand, but weak combustion demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 40 to 4550, remained stable in East China at 4505, and decreased by 40 to 4710 in South China; ether - post C4 decreased by 40 to 4640, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4505 [1]. - The PG futures price declined with the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract is currently 513; the 07 - 08 spread is 84, and the 07 - 09 spread is 150 [1]. - The import cost increased, PP prices rose, and PP production profit decreased. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1]. Weekly Changes - From Monday to Thursday, the PG futures price fluctuated upwards, and on Friday, it significantly declined due to the drop in oil prices. The basis of the 07 contract strengthened, and the spreads of 07 - 08 and 07 - 09 also strengthened [1]. - In the external market, FEI and MB slightly declined, while CP slightly increased; the oil - gas ratios in North Asia and the US fluctuated, and the oil - gas ratio in the Middle East declined. The official June CP price decreased, with propane and butane at 600/570 (-10/-20) dollars [1]. Fundamentals - Arrivals slightly increased, chemical demand rose, civil gas sales were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; refinery inventories generally increased [1]. - Supply increased by 2.46% in terms of commercial volume, and it is expected to continue to rise, while arrivals are expected to decrease [1]. - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 63.26% (+2.11pct), production margins declined, and the processing profits of FEI and CP are similar. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will continue to rise next week [1]. - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume increased, and profitability rebounded significantly. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to climb next week [1]. - MTBE prices first rose and then fell, production remained basically flat, and the profits of gas - fraction etherification and isomerization etherification increased significantly. It is expected that MTBE supply will increase, and there may be some replenishment demand after the Dragon Boat Festival, which will support C4 demand [1]. - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1].